National Holiday Shutdown Overseas Gold and Silver Hit New Highs Again Post-Holiday Silver Fluctuates at Highs Spot-Futures Price Spread Widens [SMM Silver Market Weekly Review]

On the macro front, numerous overseas macro events occurred during the National Day holiday. The previously anticipated US government shutdown materialized, driving safe-haven sentiment and pushing overseas precious metals to new highs, with the gold/silver ratio rebounding to some extent. Consequently, the delayed release of US non-farm payrolls data increased the difficulty in assessing the economic outlook and the US Fed's policy path. However, other data indicated that the US has not yet escaped "stagflation risks," and the relatively strong US dollar index meant that precious metals rose alongside the dollar, reflecting a premium for political and economic uncertainty. After the holiday, ceasefire expectations in the Middle East caused gold to relinquish some gains, while silver prices remained relatively strong, with precious metals overall continuing to fluctuate at highs. Additionally, expectations for policy easing continue to support silver prices in Q4—according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining unchanged rates in October is 10.7%, with an 89.3% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. For December, the probability of unchanged rates is 2.9%, with a cumulative 32.2% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 64.9% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut.

[Economic Data]

Bullish: US September ADP employment change: -32,000 (previous: -3,000, expected: 50,000).
Bearish: US September ISM Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (previous: 48.7, expected: 49).
US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 26: 1.792 million barrels (previous: -607,000, expected: 1.048 million barrels).

[Spot Market] In the silver spot market, overall consumption was subdued due to early holidays for downstream end-users and decreased purchasing interest following the post-holiday surge in silver prices. Spot transactions were mainly between traders or for export. Regarding spot premiums/discounts, the TD-SHFE silver most-traded contract spot-futures price spread widened after the holiday, with most suppliers holding back sales amid a wait-and-see sentiment, while a few large silver ingot suppliers raised TD premiums to 8-9 yuan/kg in an attempt to close deals. Post-holiday, some smelters sold at highs, but supply was limited, and market wait-and-see sentiment remained strong.

PV silver paste: This week (September 25–October 9), the reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste ranged from 6,645–7,126 yuan/kg; solar cell front-side finger averaged 10,003–10,724 yuan/kg; solar cell front-side busbar averaged 9,953–10,674 yuan/kg.